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Steve Eisman of “The Big Short” fame said investors should ignore the U.S.-Iran war as it could be a long-term positive for markets.
In fact, when the investor was asked Monday by CNBC’s Joe Kernen on “Squawk Box” whether he would change anything because of the conflict, he responded with, “Not a single trade.”
“I think long term, this is very, very positive,” Eisman said. “People react because of what’s happening, oil prices are obviously up. But if it goes well, two months from now, prices will be back to where they were.”
The stock market was in turmoil Monday after the U.S. in a joint attack with Israel attacked Iran over the weekend and killed the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a strike that triggered retaliatory attacks from Tehran.
Historically, geopolitical conflicts have little lasting effect on stocks. In data going back to 1980, the S&P 500 on average is unchanged the day after such an event, according to Barclays’ trading desk. Studies show stocks tend to recover within a month after the start of a conflict.
But sharply higher oil prices, and the potential for the conflict to spread across the region, could pressure the stock market for longer this time. Stocks were already close to record highs ahead of the conflict, but the pace of the bull market had begun to slow on concerns about AI’s overall impact on the economy.
In expressing his own views on the conflict, “The Real Eisman Playbook” podcast host and former Neuberger Berman money manager said he’s supportive of Trump’s actions against a regime he called a “death cult.”
However, he also acknowledged the conflict may take longer than expected.
“This is going to take time,” he said.