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Putin is under pressure to agree to a ceasefire. Few leaders would continue to pursue a war that has cost around a million casualties and where outright victory looks impossible.
But while he might agree to an end to the exchange of drone barrages, which are causing huge damage to Russian oil and gas facilities, the bloody ground war is likely to continue.
While Russia may be suffering a thousand casualties a day, the grim mathematics involved means that Putin can take those losses and see the result as a win, because no amount of human suffering weighs in his calculus.
Russia is advancing, but at a slow rate and huge cost. In June, Russia gained about 190 square miles or less than 0.1% of Ukrainian territory.
As Michael Kofman recently noted after a trip to Ukraine, mass attacks with armored vehicles are vanishingly rare. Pervasive drone surveillance means any movement is spotted miles before it reaches the front line, and a mass of First Person View drones hits any assault group long before it gets within sight of Ukrainian forces.
Instead, attacks are a matter of trying to infiltrate the lightly held Ukrainian lines. Russian forces advance stealthily or rapidly on foot, trying to get through the barrage of FPV drones.
“Russian attacks are sometimes in 4-6-man groups, but in many cases have decreased to numerous 2-3-man sections trying to penetrate in between Ukrainian positions,” Kaufman notes. “Russian infantry seeks to advance as far as possible past Ukraine’s initial line and entrench there. Although many may be lost, some get through and entrench, awaiting reinforcements. Much the same can be said of motorcycle and buggy assaults. . . . Most fail, but not all, leading to small tactical advances.”
Losses are high and successes rare. But if commanders throw enough troops against a line for long enough, they eventually push it back.
Some reports suggest that the casualties are a point of pride among Russian commanders, who boast about the number of troops they lost to gain a position — “‘I killed five Storm units to take this village” is a typical attitude, according to Russian bloggers translated by Chris_O.
Casualty rates of 80% or more among assault units are reportedly commonplace, with injured survivors rounded up and forced to join the next wave — even on crutches.
Technical specialists and other troops are drafted into assault units. The entire crew of Russia’s only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, was sent ashore, reorganized as a naval infantry unit, and deployed to the Pokrovsk sector in 2024.
Ukrainian casualties are unknown but likely very much lighter. Defending forces typically only lose a fraction as many as attackers. And very few Ukrainian soldiers now have contact with the enemy as drones take on more and more of the fighting.
But as long as Russia’s war machine gets a supply of fresh bodies, it can continue to advance.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, in 2024, each square mile cost around 150 Russian casualties. By mid-2025, Ukrainian Presidential Office Deputy Head Pavlo Palisa gave a figure of 432 casualties per square mile.
It is expensive territory, but Putin wants to buy it because he can.
Casualties on this scale might be unthinkable to Western nations, but in Russia, few people seem troubled by the scale of losses, as far as they are aware of them.
“Many people are actually not aware of the nature and scale of casualties,” Samuel Bendett, an expert on the Russian scene and advisor to the CNAS and CSIS think tanks, told me. “And the official propaganda and all manner of social media tools such as pro-Kremlin Telegram channels state that sacrifices are necessary.”
Russia takes great pride in the many giant cemeteries honoring the over 20 million Soviet dead lost in WWII, known as the Great Patriotic War.
War in Russia is all about sacrifice for the Motherland, the individual dying and achieving glory for the greater good. Putin made this exact point in a televised meeting with the mother of a dead soldier in 2022.
“Some people die in road accidents, others from alcohol — when they die, it’s unclear how. But your son lived, do you understand? He fulfilled his purpose,” Putin told the mother.
One of the main reasons there is no public outcry is that the men dying are not young conscripts (known as “Mobiks”) but contract soldiers (“Kontraktniki”) who sign up voluntarily for a fixed duration. The Mobiks, perhaps 25% of the army, are kept well back, Kontraktniki go to the front.
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The amounts of money on offer are, to Russians, staggering. One region offers a million rubles (about $12,000), while the national government adds another 400,000 (about $5,000) to new soldiers. In some of the poorer Russian regions like the Caucasus, the average monthly is just 35,000 rubles ($400). Signing on the army is like winning a game show — you get several years’ salary in one lump and are seen as a sort of patriotic hero. And if the recruit is killed, their families get a lavish payout, at least in theory.
“Many underprivileged men see it as an opportunity to earn money and do something really great in their generally miserable life,” notes analyst Kirill Shamiev in a detailed Twitter thread on public opinion in Russia.
Recruits typically come from deprived areas, and as Russia’s economy disintegrates in slow motion, the bonanza offered by the army looks increasingly appealing.
Because Russia is not seeking high quality troops, they will take anyone. An RBC report from the city of Mordovia describes how the recruiters visit homeless shelters looking for recruits, regardless of their mental condition or whether they are drug addicts or alcoholics: “People who show at least minimal interest are immediately offered to sign a contract for military service.”
In the early years of the war, Russia had thousands of convicts who were recruited directly from prisons under a special program, and mercenaries like the Wagner group, both of which took disproportionate casualties because they were expendable without affecting public opinion. While these sources have dried up, Russia can now also count on North Korean troops, who again are thrown into the most intense combat and suffer a high rate of casualties.
But most of those that are being fed into the meat grinder are Kontraktniki, and Russia is recruiting them, and losing them, at a rate of around 30,000 a month.
A country of 140 million can sustain losses at this rate for a considerable period. And as long as they are seen as patriotic volunteers dying for a cause — “fulfilling their purpose” as Putin has it — there is no public outcry.
From Putin’s point of view, this slow, grinding advance is a winning strategy. He is gaining territory and counting on Ukraine facing a political crisis in the coming months.
If a future ceasefire freezes the existing situation on the ground, every day of fighting is a day of progress.
Several things could change this: accelerating economic collapse, more military aid to Ukraine, or a successful Ukrainian offensive. Without these, expect the bloodshed to continue.
Reprinted with permission from Forbes.