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California Democrats know how to manipulate the field of candidates to produce the governor’s race they want.
That’s what I learned in the 2021 California gubernatorial recall election against Gov. Gavin Newsom.
It is not a loss that gives me sleepless nights.
It is, however, annoying that people, including veteran political analysts and pundits, get wrong exactly what happened.
Why? Because the truth is instructive as to how Democrats maneuver, and what could be happening in the gubernatorial race in 2026.
After the 2021 vote, post-recall critics said I ran a “pro-Trumpian” campaign.
Others said I should not have accepted the endorsement of a “pro-life extremist.”
A Los Angeles Times columnist called me “the black face of white supremacy” because I supposedly downplayed racism.
I was also vastly outspent.
The Los Angeles Times editorial board opposed the recall, calling it “undemocratic,” and endorsed Newsom, as it did when Newsom first ran for governor.
President Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama, among other prominent Democrats, opposed the recall and supported Newsom.
But the primary reason the recall failed had little to nothing to do with any of this.
Astute California observers will remember that a recall requires two steps.
First, the ballot asks voters: Do you want the governor recalled? Fifty percent plus one vote must answer “yes.”
If that happens, the “replacement candidate” who gets the most votes becomes governor.
In 2003, California voters recalled the governor when a majority of voters said, “Yes, we want him recalled.”
There were two notable replacement candidates out of more than 100 replacement candidates — one a Republican, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and the other a Democrat, Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante, who ran against his own boss.
Some voters wanted Schwarzenegger to be governor — and voted for the recall to pass. Some voters wanted Bustamante — and voted for the recall to pass.
That combination made the first part of the recall vote — “Do you want the governor recalled?” — pass by 11 points.
Schwarzenegger, who won the most votes on the replacement side, became governor.
That brings us to the 2021 recall election.
Democrats learned their lesson. They made sure there was no big-name Democrat on the replacement ballot to prompt voters to vote “yes” for a recall election.
The popular former two-term mayor of LA, Antonio Villaraigosa, publicly expressed an interest in running as a replacement candidate. He had lost to Newsom in the 2018 primary.
But suddenly, he announced he would not run. (He is now running for governor again.)
Democrats pressured Villaraigosa to stay out of the recall in 2021, warning him that if “pulled a Cruz” and he got in, causing to Elder to win, his political career would be over.
He would become, as one article described it, “a pariah.”
In 2003, Schwarzenegger won 48.6% of the replacement vote. Bustamante received 31.5%.
In 2021, I won 48.4%, almost the exact same percentage as Schwarzenegger.
But — and this is key — the next-highest replacement vote winner was a YouTube Democrat influencer who received just 9.6%.
Every other replacement candidate — and there were 45 — received single digits or a fraction of a single digit.
Bottom line: I did as well as Schwarzenegger — and arguably better, since he spent $4 million of his own money, and I did have his nearly 100% name recognition.
But Democrats had learned how to set the field up to their advantage.
During the recall, I obtained the personal cell phone number of former Gov. Jerry Brown. He picked up.
Brown: How did you get my number?
Elder: I know people. (He laughed.) I called to ask your advice about something I want to do if I win the election.
Brown: You can ask, but you won’t win. We’re not going to make the same mistake we did before. No Democrat with a name will run, let alone the lieutenant governor.
And that is precisely what happened. Again, there was no big-name Democrat on the replacement side to drive 50-percent-plus-one to vote to recall Newsom.
So, no, I did not “have my a— handed to me” as one pundit put it.
As they do with so many outcomes that circumvent the people, Democrats cleverly orchestrated their desired result.
Larry Elder is a nationally syndicated talk radio host and author of seven books, including As Goes California: My Mission to Rescue the Golden State.