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Donald Trump opened up a 10-point lead in the J.L. Partners/DailyMail.com election model.
Trump now has a 55.2% chance of winning the election versus Kamala Harris with only a 44.6% chance.
Kamala Harris may have enjoyed her most successful campaign weeks, according to our J.L. Partners/DailyMail.com election model which shows Donald Trump opening up a 10-point lead.
The model crunches all the latest poll data, as well as decades worth of election results plus economic indicators, to calculate who has the best chance of winning the electoral college in November.
It still shows Harris with the best chance of claiming victory in the popular vote (it gives her 50.8 percent support now and a 65 percent chance of finishing with more votes in November).
But state-by-state numbers all show the Blue Wall of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan tilting towards Trump, giving him the overall advantage when it comes to winning the White House.
It gives him a 55.2 percent chance of victory. Harris is on 44.6 percent, with a very small chance of a tie.
Data analyst Callum Hunter said, “If current trends continue (although these have only been in place for a week or so) then we may see Trump take a more concrete lead in the race over the coming few weeks.”
Data analyst at J.L. Partners, Callum Hunter, believes Trump could open an even wider lead in the coming weeks.
“Things are continuing to move against Harris,” Hunter said. “While September saw her gain ground as a result of the debate and changes in ballot access, things have started to settle back to where they were at the start of September.”
“If current trends continue (although these have only been in place for a week or so) then we may see Trump take a more concrete lead in the race over the coming few weeks,” he added. “September seems to have been Harris’ high point and trends suggest that this high has come to an end.”