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It was never going to be easy for President Trump to bring an end to the Ukraine war, but it’s even harder when he’s operating under an erroneous theory of the conflict.
The man who instigated the war and who is the chief obstacle to peace is Vladimir Putin. Yet, this enemy of the West, murderer of dissidents, and serial perpetrator of wars of territorial aggrandizement has never been subjected to the same US pressure campaign as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whose fundamental offense is to be leading a country that his larger neighbor wants to subjugate.
After a much-anticipated phone call with Putin on Monday, Trump sounded optimistic and said Ukraine and Russia will keep negotiating, although there was no indication of anything new.
Making nice to Putin
After the browbeating he took in the Oval Office a few months ago and a pause in US intelligence assistance, Zelensky got the message.
He’s done everything possible to portray himself as the reasonable one who’s interested in pursuing a deal.
A US-proposed general cease-fire? Zelensky has said he’s willing to accept it. Russia’s idea for direct talks in Istanbul? Zelensky accepted (after initial opposition), and said he’d go himself.
He signed a critical minerals deal with the US.
Putin, in contrast, has been at the receiving end of an all-carrots approach, and has reacted accordingly.
One of Trump’s advantages on the world stage is that he can make use of the “mad man theory,” the idea that he’s so unpredictable and potentially extreme that it’s best not to displease him. Against type, Trump has been less the mad man with Putin than the therapist, who speaks in dulcet tones, is understanding to a fault and is determinedly non-judgmental.
Pretty much whatever Putin does, Trump says someone else would do the same in his circumstances. Putin could nuke Warsaw, and Trump might be tempted to observe, “Well, it’s a shame and I hope he doesn’t do it again.”
Trump almost never strikes a pleading tone, but when Putin launched large-scale strike on Kyiv last month, Trump posted on TruthSocial, “Vladimir, STOP!”
The play for the Kremlin is obvious here. It wants to keep inching ahead with territorial gains in war, and if it continues to string along negotiations, has to hope that Trump tires of the whole thing and cuts off US aid to Ukraine. That would reward Putin’s intransigence with a very important diplomatic victory — a split between the US and Europe — and a chance to make major advances against an increasingly hard-pressed Ukraine.
Trump at times seems to realize this, and has referred to Putin “tapping me along.” But the master at establishing leverage over another party in negotiations has failed to do so with Putin. In part, this is because the president has seemingly absorbed his MAGA base’s view that Putin isn’t the problem — the Russian leader was baited into war by foolish globalists who took insufficient account of Russia’s interests and feelings.
Whatever you think of the policy of NATO expansion, Ukraine didn’t invade Russia, and Putin has made it clear that Ukraine’s existence as its own independently governed nation is at the root of his war.
Blaming the victim
So long as Putin believes that he’s winning and holds “all of the cards,” there’s no reason for him to become more pliable. Trump and other administration officials have floated further economic measures against Russia, but these would probably be of limited utility. If the administration made it clear that if Putin doesn’t drop his maximalist demands — basically for an Ukraine that can’t defend itself — it will back Ukraine to the hilt, that might change his calculations.
Russia’s gains have come at a hideous cost — nearly a million Russian casualties since the start of the war.
If Ukraine isn’t going to buckle and the United States isn’t going to abandon her, then the Russians might reach a point of exhaustion.
Short of that, Putin has every reason to think he can persevere when the world’s superpower is inclined to blame the victim of his unprovoked aggression.