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It’s being called the “boys vs. girls election.”
This year’s presidential matchup between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is one that commentators say is falling along gender lines, with “crypto bros” against “cat ladies,” and Barstool nation taking on “brats.”
Indeed, polling supports this narrative. A recent Suffolk University/USA Today poll is just one of many showing that women favor Democrats — in this case by a vast 21-point spread.
But these numbers don’t tell the whole story. While traditional polling offers a broad snapshot, platforms like TikTok reveal more nuanced shifts in attitudes among female voters. Social science indicates that news cycles are often downstream of social media. For better or worse, platforms like X surface stories before mainstream journalists.
TikTok, which has a predominantly female user base, is no exception.
While it may not be the most reliable source for breaking news, TikTok offers insights into the views of female voters that polling might miss. And those insights don’t always align with the stereotype that TikTok leans progressive.
Take Kylie Pitts, a 21-year-old TikToker in Mississippi.
She has over a million followers, who watch the blond beauty, clad in oversized t-shirts, complete mundane tasks — making iced coffee, grocery shopping at Walmart and caring for her toddler and fashionably blue-collar husband.
These videos, showcasing her sunny coquette aesthetic, consistently rack up hundreds of thousands of views.
But Pitts is also a Trump supporter.
On April 29, she did a “package unboxing,” unveiling 13 Trump-themed tops she had ordered from different boutiques. In subsequent June videos, she reassured her followers, even if “we have different opinions, we can still be besties. It’s crazy to think otherwise.”
Her message of viewpoint diversity doesn’t appear to be hurting her popularity. On March 16, Pitts had 105,000 followers.
By October, after sharing Trump content, that number had grown to 1.4 million.
Her videos follow similar trends: her first 12 clips in May, the month after her “Trump haul,” averaged 844,000 views. Her first 12 videos in September averaged 1,356,000 views.
TikTok is revealing a complex political landscape that isn’t captured in mainstream narratives. Another indication of this complexity is the app’s fixation with the P. Diddy controversy, which counterintuitively elicits conservative-leaning sentiment.
Women love true crime, and we love celebrity culture.
The arrest of Sean “Diddy” Combs for sex crimes taps into the unholy alliance of both, and discussions on TikTok have been obsessive. But this fascination isn’t just about the scandal itself; it’s about the underlying narratives of power, accountability and who gets protected by elites.
Jaguar Wright — a black hip hop artist who has collaborated with Jay-Z and Mary J. Blige — has gone viral for sharing anecdotes from her past interactions with Diddy.
Her videos delve into conspiracies about the entertainment industry and its cover-ups. These videos are so widespread that they’ve spawned their own genre of playful spoofs.
But what makes this trend even more interesting is that Wright supports Trump. She claims that Diddy’s behavior has been an open secret in Hollywood for decades — enabled by a left-leaning establishment — and she sees Trump as an anti-establishment figure.
“In my honest opinion, it has to be Trump,” she says. “It has to be. Because if we vote DNC, we’re voting for liars. It’s just that simple.”
Whether Wright’s claims are valid, the widespread interest in them offers a glimpse into the concerns of young female voters.
But what about Trump’s vice-presidential candidate, J. D. Vance?
The Ohio senator went viral for comments referring to some women as “childless cat ladies.” Is he still Trump’s biggest liability for capturing women, as pundits try to say?
Even that might be shifting.
America is suffering a birth crisis, and Vance’s focus on family policies might appeal to those experiencing it. For women who have fewer children than they’d like, Vance’s aim to make America safer for raising kids could resonate.
It did in Michigan last week.
A mom interviewed by CBS, initially driven by abortion rights, said that Vance’s pro-family stance pushed her closer to Trump after the vice-presidential debate.
Her comments align with narratives circulating on social media.
From suburbanites following Pitts, to armchair detectives following Wright, to health-conscious granola moms intrigued by Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s messaging on chronic disease, many women are considering Trump.
Political candidates on both sides shouldn’t dismiss the seemingly niche and trivial trends on TikTok that help explain why.
Nora Kenney is a writer in NYC. Follow her on X at @norakenney_