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Common wisdom holds that Democrats are likely to retake the House in next year’s midterms. Perhaps — that’s what history would suggest.
But a recent poll shows that Republicans retain relative strength on important core issues.
CNN’s Harry Enten summarized those data well in a recent appearance: Looking at the Washington Post/IPSOS poll, Enten found that Republicans retained a lead over Democrats on which party voters trust more to handle the economy, crime and immigration.
The numbers aren’t close, either.
The GOP leads the Democrats by 7 percentage points on the economy, 13 points on immigration and a whopping 22 points on crime.
If those are the issues voters care most about next November, it’s hard to see the GOP losing control. Why toss out the party you trust for one that you don’t?
Those leads aren’t just the result of partisan Republicans rallying around Trump, either.
The party leads Democrats on all three issues with independents, too.
It will be very hard for Democrats to prevail if they cannot close these gaps among the voters whose support is crucial for their hopes.
This points to a hard fact for Democrats. It’s not enough to attack Trump and drive up dissatisfaction; they have to build themselves up, too.
That’s not something they’ve been able to do all year despite the turmoil Trump’s tariffs and rhetoric have caused.
The Democrats’ surprisingly strong showing in the 2022 midterms is a great example of that principle at work.
President Joe Biden was much more unpopular back then than Trump is now. Trump has a 46% job approval rating on the RealClearPolitics polling average. Biden’s was an atrocious 42% as 2022’s Election Day dawned.
Democrats nevertheless gained a seat in the Senate and lost only 9 House seats, surprising election analysts who expected a stronger night for team red.
Post-election analysis showed why that happened: The president’s party typically loses big with voters who “somewhat disapprove” of the president’s job performance. But in 2022 Democrats won that demographic by 4 points.
They did that by focusing on the choice between Trump’s Republicans and the Democrats.
Yes, they tacitly conceded, things might not be going the way you want. But can you trust them to do better?
Voters who weren’t crazy about Biden nonetheless decided they preferred his party to the GOP. That changed by 2024, but that’s because Biden didn’t turn the country around in the extra time voters gave him.
The poll numbers show that Trump is well positioned to play the same game next year.
You may not love me, he can argue, but you cannot trust them.
He’s done that in both of his election wins already.
Trump carried voters who did not like either major party candidate in 2016 and 2024. That’s why he won both races: Voters saw him as the lesser of two evils each time.
This is not to say that the GOP has things in the bag.
Trump still inspires massive amounts of hatred among Democrats. That passion could easily inspire a higher relative turnout for them, a factor that could help them mitigate their structural disadvantage.
Trump’s standing could also fall in the intervening year.
If unemployment goes up and inflation doesn’t go down, that edge on the economy could go away. Other events could go poorly for Trump as well.
It’s still worth noting two things: Trump’s job approval ratings remain historically high for him, and his party remains more trusted than its opponent.
All things considered, that’s not a bad place to be a year or so out from the midterms.
Henry Olsen, a political analyst and commentator, is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.