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A new poll reveals that Americans are increasingly fearful of rising political violence, with more than half believing an assassination of a political candidate is likely within the next five years.
Political violence poll
According to a Politico and Public First survey, 53 percent of 2024 Kamala Harris voters and 51 percent of Donald Trump voters said they expect a political assassination soon.
Overall, 61 percent of recent Harris voters and 50 percent of MAGA voters foresee an increase in politically motivated attacks.
The poll, conducted after the September assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, highlights a national mood of anxiety and growing acceptance of political violence.
The survey found that 24 percent of respondents believe political violence is “sometimes justified,” a figure that rises to more than one-third among those under 45.
Previous polls
The findings mirror an October NPR/PBS News/Marist poll showing 28 percent of Democrats and 31 percent of Republicans think political violence may be necessary to “get the country back on track.”
Between the January 6 insurrection and the 2024 election, there were at least 300 recorded cases of political violence — the largest surge since the 1970s, according to a 2024 Reuters analysis.
Targets included members of both parties, ranging from multiple shooting attempts against Trump during his campaign to a firebombing attack in April against Democratic Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.
Partisan-driven attacks
A 2023 Center for Strategic and International Studies report found that since 2016, there have been nearly three times as many partisan-driven attacks and plots as in the previous 25 years.
Escalating tensions
While many in the Trump administration have sought to blame the left for escalating tensions, experts say the roots of the violence are complex.
“There’s also been an injection of violence directly into our political process itself,” said Shane Burley, an author and journalist who studies fascism and right-wing movements. “Whether it’s the Trump administration sending masked ICE agents and National Guardsmen into largely Democratic cities to carry out immigration enforcement, or the increasingly common presence of armed militiamen and ideological street gangs at protests.”
“People engage in violence when they are not part of a stable social system. Gun violence is really a symptom of a real larger social problem that you’re going to have to deal with holistically, and that’s really unfortunate because we are nowhere near dealing with those problems in a holistic way,” Burley added.
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Author: Joshua Wilburn
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