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The precious metals landscape in recent times has been nothing short of record-breaking. New highs in gold and silver, but some of that momentum has been blown off on Thursday after a softer tone from President Trump on Iran eased safe-haven demand. Platinum, palladium, and other metals, such as copper, also cooled today, but one strategic commodity has yet to move higher in the metals bull run.
That one strategic commodity that has yet to break out from multi-year lows is ammunition.
It’s a consumable input to military power, law enforcement capability, and civilian deterrence, and remains deeply depressed relative to the broader hard-asset complex.
The ammunition industry remains stuck in a multi-year glut because of overproduction runs from the Covid period, when firearm and ammo demand went through the roof because the Democratic Party’s dark-money NGOs unleashed protest and riots nationwide, and in some cases, burned entire city blocks down.
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Now, with renewed left-wing chaos emerging in Minneapolis and a clearer understanding of how violence is used as a political pressure against the Trump administration by unhinged left-wing activists, the setup becomes even clearer. Elevated social unrest risk is returning – all other metals are much higher, but ammunition prices for the most common round in America, 9mm, remain depressed around 20 cents per round.
Ammunition checks every box for why it’s a strategic commodity: it only becomes valuable when chaos erupts or supplies are threatened.
It’s probably time to reload.