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An age-old belief among politicians is that Friday afternoon is the best time to release bad news.
The underlying assumption is that few people are paying attention. But that’s not true with the case at hand, with GOP star Elise Stefanik dropping a bombshell so important that there was no way to miss it — or the potential aftershocks.
Chief among those is that Gov. Hochul could have an easier path to re-election. And that means the Empire State’s lurch to the loony left could become more pronounced if Hochul feels free to embrace more of the agenda of socialist Gotham mayor Zohran Mamdani.
Stefanik, in the direct style that has become her trademark, put her explosive news this way: “While spending precious time with my family this Christmas season, I have made the decision to suspend my campaign for Governor and will not seek re-election to Congress.”
After I picked myself up from the floor, my first thought, was, wait, can’t we discuss this?
Her ‘primary’ concern
The next sentence in her statement only made me hungry for a fuller explanation. Although Stefanik claimed she would have easily won a primary, presumably against Nassau County executive Bruce Blakeman, whom President Trump endorsed Saturday, she added that “it is not an effective use of our time or your generous resources to spend the first half of next year in an unnecessary and protracted Republican primary, especially in a challenging state like New York.”
There’s some truth to that, but not the whole truth. A victory over Blakeman, a prodigious fund-raiser with a strong base on Long Island, was far from certain.
Nonetheless, she is correct that the winner of their slugfest would have been wounded and challenged by the need to unite the party and raise even more money for the general election against Hochul.
It’s not a coincidence that Stefanik made her announcement just after Blakeman made his first advertising buy.
The New York Times reports that he spent $25,000 for a spot on Fox News that will run in Palm Beach, Fla., between Christmas Eve and New Year’s Day.
A key viewing audience of one is scheduled to be at Mar-a-Lago during the week.
Stefanik did not mention President Trump in her statement, but he certainly looms large in her decision. She wanted him to talk Blakeman out of running, but Trump declined.
That had to sting Stefanik because she was a team player by agreeing earlier this year to the president’s request to withdraw from his nomination to be America’s ambassador to the United Nations.
Although her MAGA views, sharp mind and forceful style made her a perfect fit for the job, Trump was understandably concerned that the GOP House margin was getting dangerously thin. So he asked her to take one for the team, and stay in the House.
She obliged and in return, had every right to assume he would clear the gubernatorial field so she could avoid a primary and have a good chance of defeating a wobbly Hochul.
It’s unlikely they actually had a firm deal, but in either case, Trump took a powder. He later said of the two Republicans: “He’s great and she’s great. They’re both great people.”
Separately, he also said, “I always hate it when two very good friends of mine are running, and I hope there’s not a lot of damage done.”
Trump no help
That very un-Trumpian straddle has short-circuited the rise of the GOP’s top female star. It probably also hurt the party’s chances of seizing Albany next November and therefore holding onto its New York House seats and maybe even adding a few.
Instead, with Stefanik not seeking re-election, holding her seat is another new challenge for Republicans.
Of course, nothing was guaranteed even with Stefanik, who is 41, at the top of the GOP ticket, but I believe she would have given the party the best chance of winning a statewide election since 2002, when George Pataki won his third term as governor.
Since then, the only race within reach was Lee Zeldin’s in 2022, when he lost by five points to Hochul.
Blakeman is no slouch, but he’s 70 and not well known in much of the state. His last statewide general-election race came in 1998, when as the GOP candidate for comptroller, he got just one-third of the vote.
New York is so deep blue that even Trump, in his 2024 White House victory, pulled only 44%.
The last time the state went red in a national election was for Ronald Reagan in 1984, when the Gipper won 49 states.
A result of the Dem advantage is that although Hochul is widely regarded as a weak, vacillating governor, a recent Siena poll showed her holding double-digit leads over both Stefanik and Blakeman.
Although Stefanik was widely favored by Republicans over Blakeman, 48% to 17%, she only did slightly better against Hochul.
She was trailing the incumbent by 19 points, with Blakeman trailing by 25.
The margins indicate that the race would be a steep challenge for either Republican.
The crux of the problem is that New York is growing ever more blue, especially in and around the urban areas. Statewide, nearly half of the 12 million registered voters, or 5.8 million, are Dems.
The 2.8 million registered Republicans make up 23%, with an additional 25% unaffiliated with any party.
A key test of the gubernatorial race is whether the GOP nominee can demonstrate a serious chance of victory.
A governor worried about her own re-election would be far less likely to embrace Mamdani’s call for massive tax hikes and other radical moves.
But if Hochul believes she will be rewarded by voters for moving further left, there are no barriers to stop her. State courts are stocked with far-left advocates.
The result of a Hochul victory would be a governor and leftist Legislature incentivized to give Mamdani what he wants.
Set to follow Mamdani
Already the issue is shaping up as an odd dynamic in that the mayor is leading the charge leftward and the governor is following.
Normally, when they are of the same party, the governor calls the shots, especially as it relates to state spending, regulations and legislation.
But Hochul is more of a craven follower than a leader.
The only top Democrat to endorse Mamdani before his November victory, she already has betrayed her pledge not to raise taxes by signaling she will accommodate his agenda.
All this underscores the importance of the GOP nominee having a credible chance of victory.
Only the fear of defeat would give Hochul a compelling reason to put limits on her alliance with Mamdani.
We know for sure that the mayor is a true believer in anti-American socialism. The only question is where does Hochul stand?
Count me as a pessimist about the answer.