POLITICS: Insurers Seek Massive ACA Premium Hikes as Subsidies Expire; Trump Slams Law

Major health insurers have submitted rate filings proposing significant premium increases for 2026 as enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies expire, and the political fallout is immediate. KFF analysis and insurer filings show average subsidized premiums would jump from $888 in 2025 to $1,904 in 2026 — more than doubling for millions of Americans.

Insurers including UnitedHealthcare, Anthem and Centene point to rising health-care costs and the scheduled end of expanded federal tax credits as the reasons for the hikes. The companies have filed proposed rates across states, and state regulators are now weighing requests that could reshape the 2026 marketplace. But who pays the price for these hikes — and who benefits — is the question conservatives are demanding answers to.

The policy backdrop is clear: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) became law on July 4, 2025, making Trump-era tax cuts permanent but not extending the enhanced ACA subsidies first enacted under the American Rescue Plan and temporarily extended through 2025. Open enrollment for ACA plans began on November 1, 2025, with enrollment having surged from 11.4 million in 2020 to 24.3 million in 2025 — meaning the stakes are far higher this year.

President Donald Trump weighed in forcefully, arguing the law itself is to blame: “Obamacare is a disaster. The only people getting rich are the insurance companies, and it’s time we put American families first by repealing and replacing this broken law.” Then came the insurers’ response: a major insurer CEO said, “We are adjusting premiums to reflect the expiration of federal subsidies and rising costs.” The contrast could not be starker — and it explains why this debate is set to explode on Capitol Hill.

The human impact is immediate and brutal: analysis suggests up to 4.8 million Americans could lose coverage and the uninsured rate could rise sharply, while states with high enrollment and already-high premiums — like California, New York and Florida — stand to be hit hardest. Who bears the burden? Ordinary families at renewal time, many of whom will face bills more than 100% higher or make the painful choice to drop coverage altogether.

Behind the headlines sits a political reality conservatives have long warned about: insurers lobbied for continued subsidies, have close ties to lawmakers, and stand to gain from guaranteed government payments. That history of lobbying and political donations raises questions about whether insurers are leveraging policy uncertainty to push for taxpayer-funded relief — and conservatives are mobilizing to stop any open-ended bailout of the system.

What happens next will decide coverage for millions. Congress is expected to debate short-term extensions or reforms to ACA subsidies in the coming weeks as insurers, consumer groups and state regulators ramp up pressure. Conservatives are calling for repeal and replacement, grassroots groups are organizing, and legal teams are exploring constitutional challenges. The calendar is tight — and the consequences will play out at renewal tables and in congressional hearings alike.

One final, urgent question remains: will lawmakers side with taxpayers and market-based fixes, or will they extend subsidies that critics say prop up an insurance model that already enriched executives while premiums climbed? Expect fierce fights, aggressive lobbying, and a political showdown that could determine coverage for millions in 2026.

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