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Democratic Socialist mayoral hopeful Zohran Mamdani says he’ll push for an unprecedented leap to a $30-per-hour minimum wage by 2030 — nearly doubling New York City’s current $16.50 rate.
His voters might believe the “$30 by ’30” plan will lift workers, helping them keep up with NYC’s sky-high living costs.
In reality, such a dramatically increased wage floor would likely supercharge the adoption of automation and AI, especially in industries that rely on low-wage labor, and cost the city hundreds of thousands of jobs.
It’s not hard to see why: When the cost of labor increases, machines become a reliable, cheaper alternative.
And whenever the marginal cost of automation falls below the cost of employing workers, businesses will substitute.
NYC’s median wage is $29 per hour, meaning that up to half of the total local workforce could be affected.
Those facing the highest layoff risk include the city’s 295,000 retail workers and the 155,300 New Yorkers in restaurant jobs.
The technology — including self-checkout kiosks, ordering tablets, robot floor cleaners, and AI customer service — has been around for a while.
Amazon’s Go stores, for example, pioneered a fully automated checkout experience using sensors and AI — no cashiers at all.
Retailers like Walmart, Kroger, and BJ’s have installed more self-checkout lanes and have experimented with “scan-and-go” systems, where customers use smartphone apps to scan items.
Nationally, 92% of retailers plan to deploy self-checkout stations by the end of this year.
McDonald’s began installing kiosks widely in the late 2010s. By 2018, as states and cities nationwide began boosting their minimum wages, the fast-food giant announced plans to add 1,000 kiosks per quarter.
Chains like Shake Shack now report that kiosks have become their “largest and most profitable ordering channel,” and customers increasingly say they prefer kiosk ordering.
In 2024, when California set a new $20 minimum wage for fast-food workers — a 25% hike — many operators raced to automate their restaurants.
Within a month of the increase, one franchisee for LA’s El Pollo Loco said she bought two kiosks for each of her stores at about $25,000 per location, after calculating the new $20-an-hour wages would cost her an extra $180,000 annually at every restaurant.
Workers ultimately lost out there, and the same pattern could emerge in Gotham.
If labor costs rise steeply under Mamdani’s proposed plan, chains could move quickly to automate their restaurants — especially as stores with self-serve kiosks average a 30% higher spend than those with a human cashier.
In the kitchen, automation is arriving more gradually but steadily.
White Castle installed the “Flippy” robot to operate the fry station in several of its restaurants, and fast-casual-salad chain Sweetgreen’s Infinite Kitchen uses conveyor belts and dispensers to assemble its bowls with minimal human help — and achieves a 26% higher profit margin than human-powered establishments.
In retail, only 6% of merchandise retailers used robotics for tasks like cleaning or shelf auditing in 2022; this year, that figure is expected to more than double, to 14%.
Additionally, 71% of retailers are implementing back-of-store or in-aisle task automation — up from just 22% three years ago.
The rollout hasn’t been completely smooth, and some retailers are rethinking self-checkout after facing hidden costs and customer backlash.
One major concern has been theft — self-checkouts can make it easier for shoplifters to skip scanning items or otherwise game the system.
With a rise in the minimum wage, the loss due to theft might be smaller than the rise in wages, making kiosks an even better value.
For both retail and fast food, the flip side of automation’s advance is the human cost. And the very policy aimed at helping low-income workers may hasten the elimination of the jobs they hold.
Worse, the most vulnerable employees are those with the fewest skills, least education and highest language barriers.
In the big picture, automation can raise productivity and even create wealth that leads to new jobs in other sectors.
But before New York embraces “$30 by ’30,” voters should know what to expect.
Consumers will see faster lines and prettier touchscreens; owners will see steadier margins; and front‑of‑house workers — disproportionately young, part‑time and non‑white — will see fewer hours.
That’s a choice, not an accident.
Santiago Vidal Calvo is a Cities policy analyst at the Manhattan Institute. All views expressed are those of the author and not the Manhattan Institute.