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President Trump’s record-long State of the Union address was too diffuse to serve as a template for a midterm campaign message.
It nevertheless included many strong points that could, if he can resist the urge to stray off message, fit the bill.
Trump faces a huge challenge as he approaches November’s vote.
His job approval rating remains too low to guarantee Republican success.
Trump’s current 43.1% in the Real Clear Politics polling average is below where he was in 2018 when the GOP lost 40 House seats.
Trump’s primary objective, then, is to raise that dismal standing.
Even increasing it to 46% would be the difference between losing the House and having a chance at retaining control.
He also needs to focus public attention on the Democratic alternative.
Polls show that Americans remain sour on Democrats.
The swing voters who decide elections don’t like Trump or his opponents right now.
Trump doesn’t need them to love him in November.
He just needs them to prefer the devil they know — the GOP — to the devil they just rejected in 2024.
The State of the Union provides a few insights into how he can accomplish both tasks, provided that events play along.
The first avenue of attack is on immigration.
No one can deny that Trump has ended the daily chaos on our southern border.
That’s a real accomplishment, and one that stands in stark display to the disorder that Biden’s policies unleashed.
Trump should make this point and the contrast over and over again.
This approach will be likelier to succeed if accompanied by a less visually aggressive enforcement program by ICE and the Border Patrol.
Pictures of masked agents confronting American citizens reignites the image of chaos that Trump promised to end.
There are many ways to enforce the immigration laws and pursue mass deportations of illegal aliens without making people who want Trump to succeed think he’s going too far.
The second avenue is on the economy.
Inflation has slowed under Trump, even if it hasn’t been as rapid a cooling as he sometimes says.
If this does continue, Trump should cite this repeatedly as he makes his public case.
He should also launch high profile cost lowering initiatives to reiterate his desire to lower the cost of living.
His decision to allow higher levels of imported beef is a good example of this; he should talk about it more frequently and have scheduled speeches and photo ops that visually drive home the point.
Crime is another issue he should hammer home.
One can dispute the causes, but it’s indisputable that violent crime has dropped dramatically in his first year in office.
He should tout the concrete steps he took, such as deploying the National Guard in Washington, D.C., and contend that his no tolerance of crime message set the tone for the decline.
All three of these issues allow him to promote genuine good news and contrast his record with the Democrats’.
Trump should also use some his tremendous war chest to launch unprecedented early advertising blitzes pushing these themes.
His Super PACs have over $300 million cash on hand, and all Republican candidates will benefit if Trump’s job approval rating comes up.
It’s better to raise the foundation that lifts the entire house than spend piecemeal in races hoping to turn a poor situation around.
Trump fans will want him to say more about other successes, such as reducing the prevalence of DEI initiatives or cutting the federal workforce by ten percent.
He can indulge in some of that, but getting a message through to low attention voters requires discipline and repetition.
Spread too many messages at once and none will have the salience that cuts through the noise and persuades the target voter.
Safe streets, orderly borders, lower inflation.
That’s what many outside the MAGA base wanted Trump to do. Telling them he gets this and is delivering is the key to refloating the GOP’s waterlogged ship and winning — or at least not getting swamped in — the midterms.
Trump’s State of the Union shows a path forward.
The key now is delivering on that promise.
Henry Olsen, a political analyst and commentator, is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.