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Poll-watchers always wonder what might be the “October Surprise” of any presidential election cycle. The pair of massive hurricanes that smashed into the southeast United States over the past week certainly qualify as surprises — and could shape the outcome of the tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Large-scale natural disasters like Hurricanes Helene and Milton attract public interest in ways that other types of news do not.
People who rarely follow politics pay attention to acts of God, empathizing with their victims while wondering how they might fare if such disasters had impacted them. People want — and need — to know that those requiring help are receiving it.
Which is why the government’s disaster response is the first thing that could shape voter opinions. Every story of aid not reaching disaster-stricken communities will be amplified in today’s 24/7/365 social media driven world. So the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA’s) response is critical.
The faster it reduces hardship and restores order, the less damage will accrue to Vice President Kamala Harris, whose administration will ultimately be held accountable FEMA’s performance.
The endless news focus on the hurricanes, however, could also serve as a liability to Harris by reducing the amount of attention her campaign receives in the rest of the news.
This is a crucial moment for Harris. Those early bursts of joy have been nearly exhausted, and her lead remains short of what’s needed to calm jittery Democratic nerves. Americans mostly know what they think of Donald Trump, but many are still unsure how they feel about Kamala Harris. The vice president needs consistent, positive exposure to firm up her polling numbers. And every minute spent on disaster coverage works against her.
Then there’s Donald Trump, who could easily insert himself into the hurricane narrative in ways Harris cannot counter. Trump, for instance, offered free lodging in his South Florida hotels to hundreds of linemen; Harris can’t exactly dole out invites to the White House.
Trump’s generosity may be downplayed by the mainstream media, but no matter. His allies will eagerly spread these “caring” messages across social media, reaching tens of millions of voters while Team Harris can do little more than push out cloying cover stories in Vogue.
Hurricane Helene also places pressure on the election system itself in the key states like Georgia and Florida. Mail ballots may have been destroyed; vast voter numbers have likely been uprooted from their homes and are now hundreds of miles away from polling stations. And this could make a crucial difference in both states if, as expected, the election is razor close.
Both states, however, have deployed executive orders and other legal mechanisms to facilitate voting by displaced people. Still, challenges remain, especially in the most impacted areas. And it’s difficult to know how this might play out on Election Day.
While it’s true that the counties hardest hit in both states lean toward Trump, Democratic bastions such as Savannah, Ga., and Asheville have also been devastated. Their poorest residents were most likely hit hardest, which could even further depress Democratic votes.
Meanwhile, both parties will also try to control the narrative around disaster relief and clean-up, which slightly advantages Trump.
Follow the latest from The Post on Hurricane Milton:
Harris’ campaign mantra is that she can bring change to the nation — a “New Way Forward” rather than a return to what she describes as Trump’s chaotic past.
But Harris can’t project forward momentum if the White House cannot secure shelter for the newly homeless and power for those now in the dark.
Failing to do so will play into Trump’s key line of attack — that the Biden administration cannot perform during moments of national urgency. And FEMA must now prove this argument wrong. FEMA failures are the last thing Harris wants to be talking about in the campaign’s final weeks.
Then there’s the real possibility that another storm might strike before election day. Hurricane season will continue through early November, and even the threat of a third storm would consume crucial media attention in the campaign’s waning weeks.
Again, any talk about disasters and government abilities is a far more dangerous distraction for Harris than Trump.
Most worrisome, all this focus on political performance shifts attention away from the real story, the damage the storms have caused to innumerable families and communities.
Many Republicans believe that Hurricane Sandy’s smashing into New York and New Jersey back in 2012 gave Barack Obama the chance to shine at a crucial time, perhaps even swinging the election in his favor. Data from that period shows that Sandy provided Obama with a clear last-minute poll boost.
Helene and Milton hit much earlier in this election cycle, but they have set in motion developments that tilt the debate away from Harris’ strengths and towards Trump’s advantages.
And in a race that will likely be decided by tenths of a percentage point, the unprecedented double-whammy could emerge as the “October surprise” that ultimately returns Trump to the White House.
Henry Olsen is a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.