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By Paul Homewood
Following my post on the EU abandonment of the ban on ICE cars in 2035, it is worth clarifying the position regarding hybrids.
Just to recap – the EU demands that vehicle emissions are cut by 90% from 2021 levels come 2035, that is from a 2021 baseline of 110 g CO2/km.
As an example, the current Volkswagen Golf diesel is rated at 115 g currently, with the Golf plug-in hybrid at 25 g.
All emissions figures are certified by the manufacturer, using WLTP technical procedures. I would stress that they are tailpipe emissions, so fully electric cars are rated at zero emissions, regardless of the fact that the electricity they use may involve CO2 emissions.
Where does this leave non-plug in hybrids, usually referred to as mHEVs?
Up the creek without a paddle, by the looks of it!
The Golf petrol mHEV has emissions of 117 g/km, as high as the diesel.
Clearly there is no future for cars like these under the 2035 targets.
Someone, by the way, mentioned the Prius. This has an emissions rating of 36 g/km, still way above the EU’s 2035 Directive, which equates to about 11 g/km.
As I mentioned before, plug-in hybrids are of no use to drivers who don’t have off street parking. They are not going to queue up at public EV chargers, where they will be charged a fortune. Instead they will simply fill up with petrol and drive it just as like an ordinary car. This will of course make a nonsense of the low emission figures claimed.
UK ZEV Mandates & Hybrids
The situation in the UK at the moment is that new hybrids can still be sold after 2030, but only subject to ZEV mandates.
In 2030, fully electric cars must make up at least 80% of sales, leaving 20% for hybrids. However this hybrid allowance will quickly be cut to the bone, until they are fully phased out in 2035:
Hybrid sales this year are running at 25%, so there is realistically no long term future for hybrid manufacturers in this country.
They will be able to survive for a couple of years or so, taking advantage of extended credit trading (e.g., rewarding CO₂ savings from hybrids in earlier years).
But the outlook after 2030 is bleak, unless the ZEV mandates are completely cancelled, as the Tories have promised.
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