POLITICS: “Election Environment Favorable To GOP”

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Republicans have a favorable election environment according to Gallup.

Republicans are leading 48% to 45% in party identification and leaning.

They are also leading 46% to 41% in the “party better able to handle the most important problem.”

Both of these have a strong “relationship to past presidential election outcomes” according to Gallup.

 

Gallup reported:

Nearly all Gallup measures that have shown some relationship to past presidential election outcomes or that speak to current perceptions of the two major parties favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party. Chief among these are Republican advantages in U.S. adults’ party identification and leanings, the belief that the GOP rather than the Democratic Party is better able to handle the most important problem facing the country, Americans’ dissatisfaction with the state of the nation, and negative evaluations of the economy with a Democratic administration in office.

…

More U.S. adults identify as Republican or say they lean toward the Republican Party (48%) than identify as or lean Democratic (45%). Those figures are based on an average of Gallup polls taken during the third quarter (July to September) to minimize poll-to-poll variation in party identification estimates and to provide more reliable comparisons across presidential years given the different timings of the two major party conventions in July, August or September.

Party affiliation and voting are strongly predictive of individuals’ vote choices, with the vast majority of identifiers and leaners voting for the candidate of their preferred party. At the aggregate level, there are typically more Democrats and Democratic leaners than Republicans and Republican leaners in the U.S. adult population. Democrats have won presidential elections in years in which they had larger-than-normal advantages in party affiliation, including 1992, 1996, 2008, 2012 and 2020.

In years when the advantage was narrower — 2004 and 2016, for example — Republicans won in the electoral college if not also the popular vote.