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A recent report by France 24, “Failing to tackle climate change will mean more wildfires ahead,” asserts both that the recent Aude wildfire was unprecedented and it resulted from human-caused climate change. This is false. Data show that neither wildfire numbers nor acreage lost are increasing, and this particular region of France is one which has seen severe wildfires throughout its history, including in the recent past.
France 24 interviewed Jean-Pascal van Yperselem, professor of climatology and environmental sciences from Louvain-la-Neuve, to discuss the Aude wildfire. He attributed the fires to climate change, saying that he believes “it is once more a very strong signal that climate change is intensifying the conditions that make those very big fires and forest fires more likely.”
He goes on to list drought and extreme temperature as conditions that are worsening because of “human caused” climate change. “We can only blame ourself,” van Yperselem said. The France 24 story also cited recent wildfires in Spain and Greece as proof that climate change is making wildfires worse.
First, it is simply false that wildfires are getting worse in the region. Data is available from Copernicus, a joint effort between NASA and the European Space Agency, tracking wildfire in France since 2002. Even if this year proves to be a higher than average year, there is no trend in increasing wildfires in France. (See figure below)
This recent fire was not even the worst in French history. As many other news sources explain, while this year’s fire in Aude burned more than 16,000 hectares, it is only the most damaging fire since one that burned over 50,000 hectares… in 1949. Seventy six years of global warming ago. It seems that reporters don’t actually understand the definition of “unprecedented,” based on how often they improperly bandy it in climate reporting. Natural disasters which aren’t unique in any way, also aren’t unprecedented.
For the European Union in general, again there is no trend in fires. (See figure below)
Ypersele does admit that there are a number of conditions that contribute to wildfires, including strong winds, but says the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said those conditions “would become more common with climate change” but neglects to admit that the IPCC also says data show these conditions have not, in fact, become more common. As my colleague H. Sterling Burnett explained in another Climate Realism post covering European wildfires, chapter 12 of the Sixth Assessment Report states that there has been no observable change in wildfire, and doesn’t expect to see any observable change for a very long time.
France 24 and Ypersele got one thing right. To reduce the damage from wildfires when they occur, they France needs to improve how it fights fires and decrease the amount of dry shrubs that aid in the spread of fire. Taking proper mitigation measures can do far more to reduce the harm from wildfires, than any change in fire weather, which occurs seasonally in the Mediterranean region.
It is a shame that France 24 didn’t do some simple fact checking, using publicly available data, before writing a story that reinforces the false narrative that climate change is worsening wildfires. The press should be educating people about fire safety, without inaccurately blaming fossil fuel use for making wildfires worse. Fossil fuels can’t be behind an increase in severe wildfires, if wildfires aren’t becoming worse. Banning fossil fuels and other draconian climate policies will not stop wildfires from occurring in historically fire prone regions, but it will make it harder for people to live their daily lives, and make wildfire prevention and firefighting more difficult.
The post Check the Data, France 24, Climate Change Isn’t Causing Worsening Wildfires in France appeared first on ClimateRealism.
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