POLITICS: CCC Call For Steeper Emission Cuts

By Paul Homewood

Have not the CCC done enough damage to this country already?

LONDON, Oct 26 (Reuters) – Britain’s climate advisers, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), has recommended in a letter to government that it should commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 81% by 2035 in its upcoming budget next month.

The new Labour government is expected to announce increases in public spending and taxes in its first budget in 14 years next week.

The emissions cut target recommended by the advisers is higher than the current target of a 78% reduction by 2035 compared with 1990 levels and excludes international aviation and shipping emissions.

However, it would make a credible contribution towards limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the committee said.

“With climate damages already felt around the world, targeting an 81% emissions reduction by 2035 sets the right level of ambition,” said Piers Forster, interim chair of the committee. “Our analysis shows this can be achieved in a way that benefits jobs and the economy, provided we hit the country’s 2030 target – set in line with the CCC’s advice in 2020,” he said.

The government needs to set out an updated climate plan and targets for 2035 before a U.N. deadline of February 2025.

In July this year, the CCC said Britain might miss its 2030 emissions reduction target and was off track to meet a longer-term target of net zero emissions by mid-century.

The advice will also form part of the committee’s seventh carbon budget plan covering the years 2038-2042 which is due to be published in February next year.

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/britains-climate-advisers-urge-steeper-emissions-cut-target-2035-2024-10-25/

Emissions of CO2 in 1990 were 604 Mt, dropping to 310 Mt last year. A target reduction of 81% by 2035 would mean a cut to 115 Mt, or 63% from now.

The actual outlook is probably even worse, because the 81% refers to all GHGs, in particular methane and N2O. Non CO2 GHGs have already been cut by59% since 1990, and further reductions will be much more difficult to achieve. If no further cuts are made in them, all of the burden will fall on CO2, implying a cut of 78% from now.

Even if power is fully decarbonised, this would only save 10% of emissions. Electric cars will no doubt help to reduce the 32% which Road Transport contributes. But maybe half the cars on the road will still be petrol/diesel, as heavy transport will be too. So there is limited room for reductions there, maybe another 10% or so.

And that’s about it!

There appears to be no hope of any mass rollout of heat pumps, and even if industry can be converted to hydrogen, the infrastructure for producing and supplying it simply won’t exist on these time scales.

See also

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https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/energy-and-emissions-projections-2022-to-2040

It is worth reminding ourselves that the CCC’s Chair, Piers Forster, who has called for this has no knowledge of how the energy system or the economy. He is an academic whose background is climate modelling. Only somebody like him could come with inane comments like:

“it would make a credible contribution towards limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels”.

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https://environment.leeds.ac.uk/see/staff/1267/professor-piers-forster

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If we have to have a CCC, which the law demands, we should fill it with people who understand how energy systems work, how industry operates and who are prepared to be honest about what is practical and what is not. Above all, people who will lay out the costs involved and the massive damage likely to be caused to the UK economy in order to hit the targets laid down.