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It’s a mystery fit for Sherlock Holmes: Where New York’s governor will come up with the cash to fill the yawning gap in her proposed state budget?
When Gov. Kathy Hochul opens up the book Tuesday on next year’s spending, she’ll trumpet a $260 billion top-line outlay — $8 billion more than last year’s spendapalooza, up more than $80 billion from the 2019-’20 figure.
A big chunk of it will be shoveled into the cash vortex that is New York’s Medicaid program, as the savings promised from Hochul’s home-care overhaul last year vanished into thin air.
She means for statewide taxpayers to spend a few billion to help Mayor Mamdani keep his child-care campaign promise — and keep Hochul on his good side (she hopes).
Yet all this new spending will come with a lot less help from the federal government — $10.3 billion less.
Do the math: That’s an $18 billion hole, far more than can be made up by higher-than-projected tax revenues (which added a $3.7 billion cushion this past year, thanks to the Trump surge on Wall Street).
Dipping into the state’s rainy-day fund may help, though that’s supposed to happen only in a recession.
The answer’s going to have to come from some combo of higher corporate taxes (the gov’s withdrawn her once-hard vow not to hike those) plus new fines, fees, and every nickel-and-dime tactic Albany can muster.
No matter that New York is already the 2nd-worst state (49th) when it comes to being business-friendly.
“If you tax them, they will run,” a Heritage Foundation report on high corporate taxes found last year.
Maybe the gov’s not a detective, but a magician — who’s about to make New York’s business-tax base disappear.