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OAN Commentary by: Theodore R. Malloch and Felipe Cuello
Wednesday, March 11, 2026
As American fire and fury rains down on Persia, many commentators, street protesters and online activists have taken to a tagline: Cuba Next!
One must appreciate the hyperactivity of this Administration – Maduro, El Mencho, Khamenei (plus successors), all in 60 days… because it works, but also because the Cuban regime is ripe enough after nearly seven decades of failed attempts, CIA bungles, and the Bay of Pigs fiasco. Time to act.
Rife with failure and atrophy since the 1959 revolution, Cuba is today a nightmare. The legacy is one of poverty, repression, and economic stagnation. Communism has left the Caribbean island of Cuba trapped in a perpetual cycle of suffering and hardship for its citizens and larger diaspora community.
Despite what’s “New”, some constants in the equation remain the same: There is still no such thing as a “Moderate” Communist. When out of power, the imperative is to get power by any means necessary. Once in power, the imperative is to stay there forever, even beyond the grave. Havana’s services to the international revolutionary movement are many and variegated, breathing new life into the issue that made enemies of Stalin and Trotsky: Whether “exporting the revolution” to reactionary/capitalist countries (or God forbid, a monarchy) is the point of wielding power, rather than some more arcane policy debate over the most cost-effective way to truly end poverty. Havana was trained by the DDR’s Stasi and is closer to their North Korean cousins than anyone on the planet. They are hard core revolutionaries, kleptocrats and vicious beyond belief.
Multiple important events pertaining to Cuba have also happened in the last few weeks. The eternal, sub rosa alliance between the broadly defined “Left” internationally, always willing to mobilize to help the Communists stay in power in Havana, mobilized oil sanctions-busting shipments (Mexico) and humanitarian aid (Spain and Canada). Washington itself, faced with the chance to starve the regime both in calories and energy, also showed mercy to the counterparts it is negotiating with behind closed doors. It appears the relatives of Castro may be looking for a way out and are afraid of what comes next.
Deep State actors are (as ever) slow to change their Cuba policy. In fact, the State Department and CIA are full of placatory go-a longs and outright traitors like “Ambassador” Manuel Rocha who spent a lifetime betraying America. The CIA National Intelligence Estimate is wrong and lacks on the ground real intelligence. We could help them fix that in a Team B accounting like in the USSR days of yore, if asked. if they care to do a real SNIE it would supply better information on which to act.
The communists have certainly failed to end any poverty, except that of its politburo. As in the Soviet era, one state-owned company (GAESA) owns everything, all rents are spent liberally on causes important to the revolution, like keeping the Party of European Socialists in power in countries Portugal and Spain. Europe remains Cuba’s biggest trade partner despite titular European “red lines”. A good example is the 7000 Cuban soldiers are currently supporting the Russian military in the Ukraine theatre, yet somehow Havana’s relations with Brussels (and even London) suffer no detectable detriment. Could it be that Cuba is a kingmaker in national politics? Working off exclusively open sources, it is the only explanation that makes any sense.
The security reasoning, even outside any ideological considerations, is easily articulated: Chinese listening posts 90 miles off Miami coupled with large loan outlays from Peking, which include nearly $3bn forgiven. That’s a lot of free money! It also raises the question as to who is really directing Havana’s operations worldwide, and who is ultimately responsible. Cuba is unbankable with some $40 billion in debt owed to creditors. The Cuban “Deep state” was only ever preoccupied with flipping governments overseas, inevitably misdirecting their national resources (or acting as cat’s paw for anti-American forces). also, the small matter of a latent Chernobyl style nuclear power plant left by the Soviets on the island, which has mercifully not been a problem so far, but may well be weaponized in the future by America’s enemies, if the Cuban Communists remain in power.
Criminality among the upper echelons of a Communist party is nothing new either – the revolution would never have managed without the constant flow of cash from smuggling, drugs, prostitution, weapons trafficking, and a long etcetera of illegalities. In modern times, the role of drug trafficking especially has financed all manner of ne’er-well-doing, from financing political parties, candidates, and campaigns… to running armed, anti-government communist revolutionary insurgencies in countries like Colombia, Angola, and Haiti.
For all these reasons and probably many more our limited imaginations cannot reach, it is imperative to separate the Cuban state from the nationalized industries they leech on for financing their criminal activities internationally, to say nothing of the domestic repression which keeps them in power. A good first step would be for the US DOJ to re-indict former President Raúl Castro, who’s money remains parked in secret Liechtenstein and should also be frozen by the US Treasury. We know the amounts and the account numbers. When we “Remember the Maine” this time around, the “Rough Rider” volunteers will be businessmen rather than cavalrymen. He should either get Maduro’d or threatening such on the 94-year-old, fragile Raul Castro, we could topple the whole regime.
The Trump Administration’s correct policy to transact only with private sector Cubans is the perfect thin end of the wedge for the “Shock Therapy” that the economic science prescribes in a case like this. Poland seems to have done well enough out of it and is on track to surpass the UK in GDP per capita soon. Break up the Cuban State-owned enterprises into as many pieces as needed and float 100% of their shares on the Miami Stock Exchange. It will be a boom as there is a huge appetite to transform the island into a democratic beacon of capitalism. Float the nuclear reactor, too.
Regional partners should also be put in the catbird seat of shepherding along the transition – Eugenio María de Hostos, an eminent Puerto Rican who fought in the Spanish-American war on the side of Cuban independence, said the destinies of the “three sisters” of the Spanish Caribbean were tied together: As one rise or falls, the other will as well. Finding a regional-international role for Puerto Rico, alongside Florida, will be a good exercise in developing the competencies of statehood it needs to be an independent country one day.
Supported by US and regional partners, Cuban-American capital and opposition movements like the Assembly for the Cuban Resistance (ARC) and Frente Revolucionario Democratico (FRD)can implement the plans they’ve spent decades elaborating for this moment. They have an entire two-year strategy ready to roll.
Liberation, stabilization, and democratization all depend on removing the totalitarian influence of the Cuban Communist Party. Paraguayan President Santiago Peña hosted them in his Presidential Palace days ago, signaling the first green shoots of international recognition of a replacement Cuban government, ready to take over in short notice while elections are properly organized.
The time is now and we have 90 days.
(Views expressed by guest commentators may not reflect the views of OAN or its affiliates.)
THEODORE ROOSEVELT MALLOCH scholar-diplomat-strategist was part of the team that brought down the Soviet Union. He and Felippe Cuello are co-authors of, Trump’s World: Geo Deus the best-selling catalogue of the President Trump’s foreign policy.
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