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I came across this excellent article this morning from Wayne Root published on The Gateway Pundit and it really got my brain thinking…
Let’s just assume there are 50 million illegal aliens here and let’s just assume the Trump Administration can deport them all.
Taking that at face value, what would that do to our Country?
Specifically, I was curious how that might reshape the House of Representatives and the Electoral College if we deported that many illegals and then immediately did a new Census.
And I have the answer for you.
The short answer?
A big boost to Republicans and potentially game-changing results in the House and Electoral College for decades to come!
Take a look here, analysis courtesy of Grok:
(1) The Composition of the US House of Representatives
The hypothetical deportation of 50 million illegal aliens would remove them from the population, and the new census counting only legal American citizens would base apportionment on the citizen population.
To estimate the effects, I used the 2020 census state populations, 2019 estimates of unauthorized immigrants by state (scaled to 50 million to match the hypothetical), and calculated the new apportionment using the Huntington-Hill method (the official method for distributing 435 House seats).
The key assumption to fill data gaps is that the 50 million illegals are distributed proportionally to current unauthorized immigrant estimates by state, and the new census excludes them from the count (resulting in a net population reduction of 50 million for apportionment purposes). This leads to significant shifts, with states having high concentrations of unauthorized immigrants losing seats, and states with low concentrations gaining seats.
The table below shows the estimated changes in House seats per state (only states with changes are listed):
State Estimated Change in House Seats California -10 Texas -5 New Jersey -1 New York -1 Idaho +1 Indiana +1 Iowa +1 Kentucky +1 Louisiana +1 Michigan +2 Missouri +1 Ohio +3 Pennsylvania +2 Tennessee +1 Virginia +1 West Virginia +1 Wisconsin +1 Republicans would gain seats overall, as the losses are concentrated in Democratic-leaning states like California, New York, and New Jersey, while gains are mostly in Republican-leaning states like Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Idaho. Swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin also gain, but the net shift favors Republicans.
My best estimate is that Republicans would gain approximately 8–12 seats in the House, assuming new districts in Republican-leaning states are more likely to elect Republicans and lost districts in Democratic-leaning states are more likely to eliminate Democratic representatives. This estimate accounts for the current partisan makeup of districts in affected states and is double-checked against similar analyses of smaller-scale removals (e.g., excluding current unauthorized immigrants shifts 3–5 seats net to Republicans, scaled up here for the larger hypothetical).
(2) The US Senate
The Senate is not affected by population changes, as each state is allocated 2 senators regardless of population. There would be no change in composition, and Republicans would neither gain nor lose seats.
(3) The Electoral College Map
The Electoral College is determined by a state’s House seats plus 2 senators, so changes mirror the House shifts (the +2 per state remains fixed). The map would shift votes away from states like:
California (-10)
Texas (-5)
New Jersey (-1)
New York (-1)
…toward states like:
Ohio (+3)
Pennsylvania (+2)
Michigan (+2)
And others listed above.
Republicans would gain electoral votes overall, as the net shift favors Republican-leaning states. My best estimate is that Republicans would gain approximately 8–12 electoral votes, with the potential for more in swing states depending on how those states vote in future elections.
This could make Republican victories easier in close presidential races by reallocating votes from Democratic strongholds to more Republican-friendly areas.
And in case you’re interested, here is a portion of that excellent article from Wayne Root courtesy of The Gateway Pundit:
By Wayne Allyn Root and Retired U.S. Border Agent J.J. Carrell
This column is the combined recommendations of TV, radio and podcast host Wayne Allyn Root and retired Deputy Patrol Agent-In-Charge for San Diego Sector, J.J. Carrell.
First, there is nothing we are asking for President Trump to do that has not already been done. There is nothing we are asking President Trump to do that is not already supported by existing laws and our U.S. Constitution. Three previous Presidents- Hoover, Truman and Eisenhower- already used their Executive Authority to remove millions of illegal aliens from our nation.
Second, let’s be crystal clear on the correct number of illegal aliens living in America today. The number is shocking, but it is based on factual truth. A Yale/MIT demographic study was released in 2019. This study’s data was run through an algorithm one million times and concluded there were 22 million illegal aliens inside our nation (before Biden took office).
Based on Border Agent JJ Carrell’s 24 years of experience on the border, and through extensive research, we believe the real number of illegal aliens allowed into America under Biden was 25 to 30 million.
So, it is a fact that as many as 50 million illegal aliens live in America. That equates to over one in six residents of the USA.
This is a demographic time bomb that is ready to explode, right in time for the 2030 census. It is also a time bomb when it comes to violent crime, gangs, drugs, homelessness, organized retail theft, overcrowded public schools, overwhelmed healthcare system, the explosion of spending and debt, and the introduction of third world disease into America.
Here are the immediate Top Ten actions designed by the combined team of Wayne Allyn Root and J.J. Carrell to successfully and quickly deport 50 million illegal aliens:
1.Appoint a military general with war-time experience to create a plan to detain and deport every illegal alien. This plan will oversee:
A) Build, maintain, and staff detention facilities across the southwest border.
B) Military and DHS personnel (including retired military and border agents) will be cross-designated as Immigration Judges that will process cases 24/7 throughout the southwest detention facilities.
C) Coordinate deportation flights, trains and buses to transport illegal aliens out of our nation.
D) Military special forces and other elite military units will be assigned to CBP officers and agents to provide protection and be granted authorization to arrest individuals under immigration law.
Here is a key point…
What is the US military for, if not to repel a foreign invasion? This is precisely what citizens and taxpayers are paying federal taxes for- to use the military to protect our borders and defend the American people from a foreign invasion.
2. Cross designate and deputize state and local police and sheriffs across America to locate, arrest and turn over illegal aliens to CBP Officers.
3. Hire retired military soldiers, retired state and local police, and retired Border Patrol Agents. This will immediately increase the immigration law enforcement force by thousands of ready-to-work professional LEOs (law enforcement officers who are certified to carry firearms over state lines).
4. Make it so difficult to live, work, and move in the United States of America for illegal aliens that they self-deport in the millions.
A) Enforce E-Verify, so no illegal alien can work.
B) Require Real ID to ensure non-citizens cannot function in America anymore.
C) All welfare, food stamps, free healthcare and public-school benefits for illegal aliens are banned permanently.
D) Any sanctuary state, city or county immediately loses all federal funding.
E) Worksite enforcement is increased nationwide-to include heavy fines for first time offenders, but for multiple repeat offenses, the offending businesses will be shut down.
*With one caveat- businesses like hotels, restaurants, farms and agriculture will have a one- year phase-in period to terminate all their non-citizen employees and replace them with U.S. citizens. But this period will end while President Trump is still in office, and therefore will be strictly enforced.
5. To make this ban of illegal alien employees work, all these foreign workers will have to be replaced by U.S. citizens. To accomplish that goal, every US citizen must be required to get a job, or lose all welfare benefits. This new pool of legal U.S. citizens will fill the jobs of illegal aliens.
6. We need to tax remittance monies sent outside the USA at rates so high, as to make sending the monies no longer feasible.
7. The GOP-controlled Congress must pass Voter Photo ID (including photo and thumbprint- exactly like Mexico uses for elections) for federal elections, and an additional voting law demanding proof of citizenship for federal elections.
8. President Trump must use Executive Action to institute “Census Security Reform” that permanently bans the counting of non-citizens.
9. Self-deportation will save America hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars, versus carrying out forced deportation. So, in addition to cutting off all welfare and healthcare benefits for illegals, and making it impossible to find work, we recommend President Trump offer a generous $5,000 bonus to each illegal who self-deports (and they retain the right to one day reapply for work visas in the USA).
This $5,000 bonus is a BARGAIN to force every possible illegal alien to pick up and leave, compared to the onerous cost of paying for them in the USA. Over time, we will save trillions of dollars by paying them to leave.
This is a Guest Post from our friends over at WLTReport.