I know what you might be thinking, “how could the war in Israel have any effect on President Trump’s campaign?”
Well, let me explain it simply first, and then I’ll break it down further.
The main benefit to President Trump is that this is doing wonders on Biden’s ratings with the Muslim community (not in a good way).
Biden’s inaction and inability to go against Israel has led many of his Muslim voting base to reconsider voting for him in the coming election.
This has huge impacts in many swing states, primarily Michigan.
Just look at what some people on X have been saying:
Like many progressive Democrats, I have applauded and been pleasantly surprised by President Biden’s actions on climate and the economy. But he’s crossed a moral line with nearly every Muslim, Arab, and anti-war young voter I know. The WhatsApp groups are all fury and pain.
It is becoming more apparent that Biden is going to face significant issues with the Muslim community in the 2024 election.
Even CNN is admitting the potential disaster this has on Biden:
Arab and Muslim Americans make up a small percentage of the population, but they have outsize influence in battleground states like Michigan, where the rejection of voters like Hammoud — who feel hurt and betrayed by the Biden administration – could cost Biden both the state and reelection.
Michigan has more than 200,000 Muslim American voters — 146,000 of whom turned out to vote in 2020 –— according to an analysis by Emgage, an organization that seeks to build the political power of Muslim Americans. Biden won Michigan — a state that narrowly went to Donald Trump in 2016 — by 155,000 votes.
“That just proves that the Biden administration needs the Muslim vote to win,” said Nada Al-Hanooti, the Michigan executive director of Emgage Action.
The stakes are particularly high in Dearborn, a Detroit suburb where more than half of the population is of Middle Eastern or North African descent.
In nearly a dozen interviews, Democrats there who voted for, campaigned for and donated to Biden’s political campaign say they can’t imagine voting for him now, even if he were to support the community’s primary request: an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.
Democrats seem to be very divided right now on who to support.
Many younger Democrats are seemingly anti-Israel while being pro-Palestine.
We have seen Rep. Talib take some radical stances against Israel.
So much so that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is seeking her censure.
It could be that this conflict might negatively impact not only Biden in the 2024 election but also Democrat House and Senate members.
Look at these voter numbers:
It is easy to see Biden losing multiple swing states in 2024 if he continues supporting Israeli genocide in #Gaza.
Most U.S. Muslims identify as Democrats, according to the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding (ISPU), though about 40 percent identify as independents.
“The large politically independent segment of Muslims also suggests that many Muslims may not feel squarely at home in either party,” said ISPU executive director Meira Neggaz. “This group was already sort of primed to not be beholden to either party, so with widespread anger and frustration with what’s happening over Gaza, now what’s going to happen with that group of independents?”
Alawieh noted that on the ground in Michigan, the Republican party is working hard to attract Muslims who may align with the GOP on wedge social issues.
“I don’t think they’ve won back this community — a community that voted Republican in much higher numbers pre-9/11,” he said.
“But I think they have been putting a fair amount of work and in a moment like this, the president’s failure to call for a cease-fire that saves the lives of Palestinian children is exactly the kind of thing that has the potential to open the flood gates of people abandoning the long streak of supporting Democrats.”
New polling this week showed Biden’s support among Arab American voters plummeting to just 17 percent, down 42 percentage points compared to 2020. The Arab American Institute, which conducted the poll, said it marks the first time in 26 years of polling Arab Americans that the majority did not claim to prefer the Democratic Party.
President Trump is an intelligent man, and he surrounds himself with smart people.
I don’t doubt they are already in the war room discussing the best way to capitalize on Biden’s failures.
Once campaign season kicks off, it will be interesting to see whether President Trump talks on these issues, and if he does, what will he say?
With an alleged upcoming subpoena against the Biden family and now the loss of the Muslim voter base, things are not looking good for Biden in his final year in the White House.