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President Trump’s approval rating has surged in a state Republicans haven’t won in nearly 40 years, making some wonder if it’s the next state the GOP can flip.
According to an Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill poll, Trump holds a 47 percent approval rating and 47 percent disapproval in New Jersey.
Trump’s approval rating has eclipsed Democrat Gov. Phil Murphy.
🚨 #BREAKING SHOCK POLL… President Donald Trump has an EVEN approval rating in NEW JERSEY – Emerson poll
🟢 Approve: 47% (=)
🔴 Disapprove: 47%Is NJ becoming a BATTLEGROUND?
Governor Phil Murphy (D) approval: 40%-45% (-5) pic.twitter.com/WQOzs54yq4
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) May 15, 2025
From The Wall Street Journal:
In national polling President Donald Trump is paying the price for his unfortunate penchant for taxing trade. It’s the same story in New Jersey. But public support for his immigration policy has the president showing surprising strength in a place where Democrats currently exercise complete control of state government. Mr. Trump ran more strongly than expected in the Garden State in 2024 when he finished within 6 percentage points of Kamala Harris. Since then he seems to have maintained and perhaps even enhanced his competitive standing. Emerson College Polling reports in a Thursday press release:
President Trump holds a split job approval rating in New Jersey: 47% approve and 47% disapprove, 6% are neutral. Governor Phil Murphy holds a 40% job approval rating, while 45% disapprove of the job he is doing; 15% are neutral.
New Jersey limits governors to two consecutive terms, so the Democrat Mr. Murphy cannot run for re-election this fall. This means he may struggle to get over the embarrassment of being less popular than Donald Trump in a liberal state with affluent suburbs.
President Trump has a 47% approval rating in New Jersey according to a NEW Emerson poll.
This is a GREAT sign for flipping this state red in November and beyond!
New Jersey is TRUMP COUNTRY!
— Mike Crispi (@MikeCrispi) May 15, 2025
Donald Trump Approval Rating in New Jersey
🟢 Approve: 47%
🔴 Disapprove: 47%Emerson (Rating: A-) | May 11-13 pic.twitter.com/oVytoleTj2
— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) May 15, 2025
Per Newsweek:
Trump’s rising approval in deep-blue New Jersey underscores a broader political realignment that could reshape the 2028 electoral map. While the state is unlikely to flip red, growing support in traditionally Democratic strongholds may signal trouble for the party’s national coalition—especially among swing and suburban voters. The trend could force Democrats to spend resources in states they once considered safe and highlights the enduring appeal of Trump’s message, even in regions long resistant to his brand of politics.
The Emerson College poll suggests that Trump’s rising popularity in New Jersey may be down to his aggressive immigration agenda, which has included mass deportations and a shift toward stricter enforcement and reduced legal immigration pathways.
The poll shows that 46 percent of voters say recent deportations have made their communities safer, compared to 24 percent who feel less safe.
Voters also largely support the arrest of Newark Mayor Ras Baraka at an immigration facility, with 44 percent supporting the arrest and 38 percent opposing. Baraka was arrested last week by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers after he attempted to join three members of New Jersey’s congressional delegation, Representatives Robert Menendez, LaMonica McIver, and Bonnie Watson Coleman, in attempting to enter a federal immigration detention center.
President Trump endorsed Jack Ciattarelli for New Jersey governor Monday evening.
President Trump Makes Endorsement In “Very Important Gubernatorial Election”
“Jack Ciattarelli is a terrific America First Candidate running to be the next Governor of a State that I love, NEW JERSEY!” Trump posted on Truth Social.
“Jack, who after getting to know and understand MAGA, has gone ALL IN, and is now 100% (PLUS!). He is strongly supported by the most Highly Respected Leaders in New Jersey and, as your next Governor, Jack Ciattarelli will work closely with me and the Trump Administration to advance our America First Agenda. Jack will fight tirelessly to Grow our Economy, Cut Taxes and Regulations, Restore our Economic Power, Help Secure our now VERY Secure (Record Setting!) Southern Border, Stop Migrant Crime, Murderers, and other Criminals from illegally entering our Country, Protect our Great Military/Vets, Advance American Energy DOMINANCE by helping to keep the price of Gasoline, Oil, and all forms of Energy VERY LOW (CHEAP!), and Defend our always under siege Second Amendment, which has not been attacked, amended, or changed while I was President,” Trump continued.
“Also, Jack is the Republican Candidate who is best positioned to STAND TALL against the Radical Left Democrats and, most importantly, ensure a Big Victory in this Very Important Gubernatorial Election, an Election that is being closely watched by the entire World because, we are ending WOKE, and all of the other NONSENSE that goes along with it, AND NOBODY WANTS TO SEE IT COME BACK!” he added.
“Jack Ciattarelli is a WINNER, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement – HE WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, ELECT JACK CIATTARELLI!” he concluded.