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This is fantastic….
Leave it to a world-class businessman to run a campaign so well and so efficiently that you can spend 1/3 of the money your Big Government Liberal competitor is spending….and still TROUNCE her in the polls in key battleground states!
That’s the message out today as Harris is spending 3x what the Trump campaign is spending — and falling in the polls in critical battleground states.
Politico confirms the giant ad-spend difference:
Kamala Harris’ campaign spent nearly three times as much as Donald Trump’s did in August — but raised so much that she still grew her cash advantage.
The massive spending disparity came even as the Trump campaign continued to scale up its expenses, which more than doubled from the month prior, according to a POLITICO analysis of campaign finance filings submitted to the Federal Election Commission late Friday. But the continued divergence highlights the Harris campaign’s significant money and infrastructure advantage as the election approaches: Harris has far more campaign cash available than Trump, and she has greater means to deploy it.
Harris entered August with more money than Trump, and managed to raise more than she spent over the month. Trump’s campaign, by contrast, spent more than it raised despite far fewer expenses. Her campaign reported taking in $190 million; his, just shy of $45 million.
The vice president’s campaign outspent Trump $174 million to $61 million in August. But Harris’ preexisting cash advantage and superior fundraising mean that she ended the month with $235 million, $100 million more than Trump.
Direct campaign money is only one part of the broader political ecosystem, and Trump is getting substantial outside support from the Republican Party and super PACs that are doing both traditional ad buys and canvassing. But campaign money has several advantages. It is directly controlled by the candidates and their closest advisers, and campaigns get better TV ad rates than outside groups do — important as paid media is now the biggest expense category by far for both Trump and Harris.
But all the momentum in the swing battleground states is shifting TRUMP!
Check this out….
Trump now up 5 in Arizona, which is a TEN POINT swing from a month ago.
Trump up 2 in North Carolina, which is a FOUR POINT swing from a month ago.
And Trump still up 4 in Georgia:
2024 GE: NYT/@SienaResearch
ARIZONA
Trump: 50% (+5) Harris: 45% Last poll (8/15) –
Harris +5
——
NORTH CAROLINATrump: 49% (+2) Harris: 47% Last poll –
Harris +2
——
GEORGIATrump: 49% (+4) Harris: 45% Last poll –
Trump +4
——
#1 (3.0/3.0) |… pic.twitter.com/oItjnaKpFJ— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 23, 2024
Typical results…
A conservative gets more by spending less.
A liberal spends like a drunken sailor and achieves poor results.
Watch here for more:
FULL TRANSCRIPT:
You won’t believe the amount of money the Harris campaign is spending compared to the Trump campaign. And then we’re going to look at some polling, and as much as many of us put some salt on the polling, I’m actually surprised by what Donald Trump was just able to pull off, especially in a certain area.
Harris is just dominating in campaign spending. Let’s first, though, look at some of these campaign spending numbers. These are just out by Bloomberg. What they do is they basically analyze ad spend—TV ad spend, mail ad spend, reservations for future ad spend. It’s really insightful. Listen to some of these numbers.
And keep in mind, when you run a political campaign, like I did when I ran for governor in 2021 to try to beat that Noem guy (anyway, don’t worry about that—I didn’t win), but anyway, you have to report your campaign spending regularly. These are fully audited and pretty dang transparent. So it’s kind of useful to see some of these numbers, but take a look at this:
The Harris campaign is spending $5 million per day more than the Trump campaign. So, Trump is spending about 2.6 million per day right now, and Harris is sitting at about 7 and a half. Now, some of that could be because the Harris campaign is so much shorter than the Trump campaign, which has been going on for, obviously, well over a year now. Well, quite frankly, some say it never ended after the 2020 election. But anyway, Trump did spend more than he raised in August by about 32 million. And I think they kind of say that as a way to say, “Ah, look, you know, Trump is mismanaging.”
Trump, again, has a war chest, and generally what you do with an election is you try to spend everything right before the election. So it kind of makes sense that you’re going to spend more of the money that you raised earlier.
Now, Harris spent $152 million on advertising in September, and Donald Trump spent $63 million. That’s per AdImpact. And Harris has about $44 million left in the bank in September versus roughly 300 for Trump. So she’s got about a 33% lead over Trump in money left in the bank right now.
And this is the crazy part—on where she’s spending the money between now and election day, which is not far away. We’re less than 45 days away here. Harris plans to spend in the following battleground states:
- 73% more than Trump in Arizona
- 39% more in Georgia than Trump
- 50.4% more in Michigan than Trump
- 204% more than Trump in Nevada
- 69% more in North Carolina
- 150% more in Pennsylvania (actually, it’s 151%)
- 27% more in Wisconsin.
These are all critical battleground states. But here’s the crazy thing—despite this extra spending planned, in addition to what’s already been happening, based on a New York Times/Siena College poll out just this morning, Donald Trump actually has a five-point lead in Arizona (critical battleground state), a four-point lead in Georgia, and a three-point lead in North Carolina.
Now, those are just based on the latest New York Times/Siena survey. Keep in mind that other polling has been less favorable to Donald Trump. A lot of folks say that, you know, a lot of the polling isn’t reflective of the sort of “sugar high,” if you will, that might come with a new campaign or a new election—well, essentially a new campaign, right? You have a new candidate.
But what’s worth noting is if we look at the RealClearPolitics averages, take a look at this: You definitely have a lead right now for Harris of about 2.2 percentage points. But you have to be really careful here, because this is the kind of stuff that happened with Hillary, where Hillary Clinton had this insurmountable lead against Trump, and then Trump smokes her because Democrats end up getting complacent, and they don’t end up getting out to vote.
Now, you’ve also not only got this average RealClearPolitics indicator here that suggests Harris is in the lead, but if you look at the betting markets, PredictIt is just smoking Trump right now—57% for Kamala Harris, 45% for Trump. PollyMarket, another betting market, has a four-point lead here for Donald Trump. A huge flip from what happened leading up to the last debate, which—keep in mind, Donald Trump says he does not want to participate in the CNN debate just two weeks before, suggesting it’s too late to take another debate opportunity and that Harris should have taken his invitation to debate on Fox, which she did not.
Anyway, let’s look at some of these other numbers, because frankly, they’re pretty remarkable. The Trump campaign did outspend Democrats by about 3x on direct mailers, at about $11.6 million. But Harris is absolutely spending a crazy amount of money on actual offices and campaign staff in battleground states, and what they’re trying to do is they’re basically playing the “get out the vote” campaign. So, knocking on doors, spending $10.2 million on payroll. This is four times as much as the Trump campaign, with 2,200 staffers in over 333 offices in these battleground states, focusing on getting people registered to vote.
Keep in mind, I have it here somewhere, I don’t think I have it handy, but I’m in California. Y’all know that. I’m turning trash here somewhere. But I just got one of those little election cards in the mail, and they’re like, “Make sure you’re registered to vote, because if you’re registered to vote, we’ll get you your ballot by October 7th, I believe it is.” So it’s fascinating because these mail-in ballots, they’re going to start showing up pretty freaking soon. And I always think that’s interesting because I feel like you should kind of wait to vote until you know the last debates and all the last drama that’s going to happen, happens. But then again, if some people wait, they never end up voting.
I can’t find it; it has to be buried under him. But then they never end up voting. So that’s why people are like, “No, no, no, turn in your mail-in ballot now,” or whatever. I never like to mail my ballot. I personally take it and go drop it off. But whatever.
So, let’s see what else we have here. Trump is also outsourcing his ground efforts to the America PAC, which is the PAC created by Elon Musk, and they did spend $15.5 million on canvassing in August. And they’ve spent about $25.8 million since the Harris candidacy began, trying to campaign against Harris. Remember, Elon is a big fan of Trump in this one. And the Harris campaign has also taken about $24.5 million of their funding and thrown it towards other Democratic candidates.
And I think this is actually an acknowledgment that the Democrats are really concerned that if they have a chance of winning, they’re not going to end up having control of the House and the Senate. Even really pro-leaning sources like The Economist suggest that Democrats have a really big uphill battle here actually trying to sweep the Senate and the House, mostly because of the seats that are available. They’re not that conducive to a Democratic victory here or a Democratic sweep.
So, even if we did end up with a Harris presidency, it’s unlikely—at least many believe—that Democrats would end up sweeping, and that could put a hamper on a lot of Harris’s plans. That is, of course, if she wins. If we end up getting another Clinton situation where people think, “Ah, well, Harris is so far ahead, I don’t have to vote,” and Trump voters end up getting out and actually voting, you could have a repeat of the Clinton-Trump days.
Really interesting. So anyway, let me know what you think about this spending. I think it’s remarkable that Harris is spending so wildly in these battleground states. And the latest poll that just came out today suggests Donald Trump is ahead in at least three of those. I don’t think they did surveying in the other battleground states, but we’ll keep getting polling, and I suspect this race is actually just going to tighten as we get closer to election day rather than widen apart. So, we’ll see.
Anyway, let me know what you think in the comments down below, and we’ll see you in the next one. Thanks so much. Goodbye and good luck.
Oh, by the way, my expectation is by about 5:00 p.m. California time today, we’re going to have open our book a call or actual sign-up opportunity over at stockhack.com for actual financial advice. So, you can get that free consult. In other words, like, “Hey, is the service right for you?” Phone call. Or if you like the new video and the paperwork and document that’s available, you can sign up directly. So stay tuned for that around 5:00 today, stockhack.com. Not advertising these things that you told us here. I feel like nobody else knows about this. We’ll try a little advertising and see how it goes.
This is a Guest Post from our friends over at WLTReport.