One year out from Election Day 2024, former President Donald Trump narrowly leads President Joe Biden, 49% to 45% among registered voters, in a hypothetical rematch in the latest CNN poll conducted by SSRS. Biden’s reelection chances are buffeted by deeply negative approval ratings, a stagnant sense that things are going poorly in the United States, diminished support among key voter blocs, and a widespread sense that he is not up for the job.
In the potential rematch between Biden and Trump, neither candidate has much room for growth. All told, 51% of voters nationwide say there is no chance at all that they would vote for Biden, and just 4% are not currently supporting him but say there is a chance they will. Nearly half, 48%, say there is no chance they will vote for Trump, and only 2% that they aren’t currently backing him but would consider it.
Biden’s support in the poll is significantly weaker now among several groups that he previously won by wide margins and were critical to his election in 2020. Among voters younger than 35, 48% support Trump, 47% Biden. Political independents break 45% Trump to 41% Biden. Black voters favor Biden, 73%vs. Trump’s 23%, while Latino voters split 50% Biden to 46% Trump. And among voters of color generally, women divide 63% Biden to 31% Trump, while men split about evenly, 49% Trump to 46% Biden.
All of those margins reflect significant declines in support for Biden compared with 2020 exit polls. While those who actually turn out to vote are not the same as registered voters, and with a full year to go before the election, there is time for voters’ views to shift, the differences between then and now are stark. Biden won voters younger than 35 by 21 points nationally, independents by 13 points, Black voters by 75 points and Latino voters by 33 points. Among voters of color, he won both women and men by wide margins: women by 53 points, men by 34.
Just a quarter of Americans (25%) say Biden has the stamina and sharpness to serve effectively as president, while 53% feel Trump does. Only about half of Democrats (51%) say Biden has the sharpness and stamina to serve, compared with 90% of Republicans who say Trump does.
This is the latest concerning poll for Joe Biden.
In recent polling conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, Donald Trump leads Joe Biden “in five of the six most important battleground states one year before the 2024 election.”
“The results show Mr. Biden losing to Mr. Trump, his likeliest Republican rival, by margins of three to 10 percentage points among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden is ahead only in Wisconsin, by two percentage points, the poll found,” The New York Times writes.
“Across the six battlegrounds — all of which Mr. Biden carried in 2020 — the president trails by an average of 48 to 44 percent,” the outlet added.