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MONEY & COMPANY:
Brazil’s 2021 inflation outlook climbs to new high, above central bank target: survey


SUBMIT IMAGE: Individuals stroll in a popular shopping street prior to Christmas, amidst the coronavirus illness (COVID-19) break out, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, December 23, 2020. REUTERS/Pilar Olivares/File Picture

February 23, 2021

BRASILIA (Reuters) – The outlook for Brazilian inflation this year increased for a seventh week and to a new high, a central bank survey of economic experts revealed on Monday, while main rates of interest are now anticipated to double by the end of the year.

The typical projection for IPCA customer cost inflation at the end of this year increased to 3.8% from 3.6%, according to the most recent weekly ‘FOCUS’ survey of over 100 economic experts.

That is above the central bank’s objective of 3.75%, with a margin of mistake of 1.5 portion point on either side, and the greatest 2021 projection in the series.

The average inflation projection over the next 12 months increased to 3.8% from 3.7%. The central bank’s end-2022 objective is 3.50%.

A constantly weak currency exchange rate, strong international product rates, and growing issues over the federal government’s financial position are all pressing inflation expectations greater, and with it rate of interest expectations.

The typical projection of the benchmark Selic rate at the end of this year increased to 4.00% from 3.75%, the survey revealed, suggesting that the marketplace now anticipates the Selic rate to double this year from its present record low 2.00%.

Last month, the typical end-2021 outlook was 3.25%. However the central bank dropped its forward assistance at its Jan. 19-20 policy conference, pointing out inflation expectations increasing close to target over the next number of years.

Financial Experts at Credit Suisse and Barclays anticipate the central bank to raise rates as early as next month.

The FOCUS survey likewise revealed that economic experts anticipate the genuine to end this year at 5.05 per dollar, up from 5.01 per dollar recently. It is presently trading around 5.40 per dollar.

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Modifying by Catherine Evans)

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MONEY & BUSINESS: Brazil’s 2021 inflation outlook climbs to new high, above central bank target: survey

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